Table 1

Description of scenarios

ScenarioInterventionBaseline2020 coverage targets2025 coverage targets2030 coverage targets
1. SustainAllMaintain coverage of all interventions at 2011–2013 levels
2. AccelerateVector control
Means of 2011–2013 country-specific coverage80% with LLIN replaced every 3 years90% with LLIN replaced every 2 yearsMaintain coverage
Other measures10% additional coverage with complementary control measures for resistance management
Blood tests, using RDTs or microscopy20%90%
10% G6PD testing90%
Treatment of uncomplicated cases2013 country-specific coverage90% at public facilities, 50% in communities.75% community based treatment
Treatment of severe cases100% hospitalised cases treated with quinine100% hospitalised cases treated with injectable artesunate50% severe cases with rectal artesunate in communities75% severe cases with rectal artesunate in communities
  • The 2011–2013 levels were assumed until 2015 and were then scaled up; vector control modelled as LLIN.

  • LLIN, long-lasting insecticidal treated nets; IRS, indoor residual spraying; LSM, larval source management; SMC, seasonal malaria chemoprevention; IPTp, intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in pregnant women; RDT, rapid diagnostic test; G6PD, glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency.