RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 The COVID-19 pandemic: diverse contexts; different epidemics—how and why?
JF BMJ Global Health
JO BMJ Global Health
FD BMJ Publishing Group Ltd
SP e003098
DO 10.1136/bmjgh-2020-003098
VO 5
IS 7
A1 Wim Van Damme
A1 Ritwik Dahake
A1 Alexandre Delamou
A1 Brecht Ingelbeen
A1 Edwin Wouters
A1 Guido Vanham
A1 Remco van de Pas
A1 Jean-Paul Dossou
A1 Por Ir
A1 Seye Abimbola
A1 Stefaan Van der Borght
A1 Devadasan Narayanan
A1 Gerald Bloom
A1 Ian Van Engelgem
A1 Mohamed Ali Ag Ahmed
A1 Joël Arthur Kiendrébéogo
A1 Kristien Verdonck
A1 Vincent De Brouwere
A1 Kéfilath Bello
A1 Helmut Kloos
A1 Peter Aaby
A1 Andreas Kalk
A1 Sameh Al-Awlaqi
A1 NS Prashanth
A1 Jean-Jacques Muyembe-Tamfum
A1 Placide Mbala
A1 Steve Ahuka-Mundeke
A1 Yibeltal Assefa
YR 2020
UL http://gh.bmj.com/content/5/7/e003098.abstract
AB It is very exceptional that a new disease becomes a true pandemic. Since its emergence in Wuhan, China, in late 2019, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19, has spread to nearly all countries of the world in only a few months. However, in different countries, the COVID-19 epidemic takes variable shapes and forms in how it affects communities. Until now, the insights gained on COVID-19 have been largely dominated by the COVID-19 epidemics and the lockdowns in China, Europe and the USA. But this variety of global trajectories is little described, analysed or understood. In only a few months, an enormous amount of scientific evidence on SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 has been uncovered (knowns). But important knowledge gaps remain (unknowns). Learning from the variety of ways the COVID-19 epidemic is unfolding across the globe can potentially contribute to solving the COVID-19 puzzle. This paper tries to make sense of this variability—by exploring the important role that context plays in these different COVID-19 epidemics; by comparing COVID-19 epidemics with other respiratory diseases, including other coronaviruses that circulate continuously; and by highlighting the critical unknowns and uncertainties that remain. These unknowns and uncertainties require a deeper understanding of the variable trajectories of COVID-19. Unravelling them will be important for discerning potential future scenarios, such as the first wave in virgin territories still untouched by COVID-19 and for future waves elsewhere.