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• Age difference and changing marriage age can add to male surplus
  Joachim R Falkenhagen
  Published on: 6 September 2021

• Published on: 6 September 2021

  Age difference and changing marriage age can add to male surplus

  • Joachim R Falkenhagen, Economist self-employed

  An additional factor of importance in the perception of a gender imbalance is the consequence of an age difference between partners (e.g. groom and bride) and the growth rate of the respective society. If, for example, there was a constant age difference of 5 years between (older) men and (younger) woman, and around 2% of annual population growth, leading to an increase of 10% in the number of births over each 5 years, that in its effect would just counterbalance a 10:9 sex imbalance (around 47.5% women to 52.5% men). In a shrinking society with a similar preference for younger women, the two effects would add and the imbalance in birth rates would feel even worse for men.

  The imbalance would ultimately affect the “market power” of the respective genders in partnerships and/or the “marriage market”. If women actually prefer a partner of similar age, and woman of one cohort can start to pursue that preference due to the “oversupply” of men, this would further enhance the marriage squeeze for men, as even more of the older bachelors would be left out while the women turn to the younger competitors of the older men. Certainly, in the advent of such transition, some men will overlook that effect and thus be left out unmarried once the patterns have changed.

  A gradual increase of the age of marriage may also trigger or enhance that effect: Young women (or their parents, to the extent they are participating in the choice of their daughters partner or life partner)...

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  An additional factor of importance in the perception of a gender imbalance is the consequence of an age difference between partners (e.g. groom and bride) and the growth rate of the respective society. If, for example, there was a constant age difference of 5 years between (older) men and (younger) woman, and around 2% of annual population growth, leading to an increase of 10% in the number of births over each 5 years, that in its effect would just counterbalance a 10:9 sex imbalance (around 47.5% women to 52.5% men). In a shrinking society with a similar preference for younger women, the two effects would add and the imbalance in birth rates would feel even worse for men.

  The imbalance would ultimately affect the “market power” of the respective genders in partnerships and/or the “marriage market”. If women actually prefer a partner of similar age, and woman of one cohort can start to pursue that preference due to the “oversupply” of men, this would further enhance the marriage squeeze for men, as even more of the older bachelors would be left out while the women turn to the younger competitors of the older men. Certainly, in the advent of such transition, some men will overlook that effect and thus be left out unmarried once the patterns have changed.

  A gradual increase of the age of marriage may also trigger or enhance that effect: Young women (or their parents, to the extent they are participating in the choice of their daughters partner or life partner) may prefer a somewhat older partner that has gained some experience in life and some economic wellbeing and thus can provide safety for a family. If women decide to marry later, partner of their own age will already be established in the workplace and thus deem adequate. The transitory effect, e.g. a cohort of women marrying around 20 combining with men around 25, to be followed by a cohort women that prefers to marry men of similar age when the marry at an age of around 25 or 30 will again contribute to a male shortfall.

  Conversely, a surplus of male bachelor could also lead to them turning to increasingly young women or girls as wives, where local legislation allows, to offset the shortfall. That could, however, never be a permanent remedy and it should be investigated if such an effect is statistically visible at all among effects that provide for a lower age difference.

  Effects to the other direction probably occurred when a significant proportion of men died in wars, as happened in Germany during the world wars, and led to a deficiency of men. As the age difference to their partner preferred by men gradually increase with age, and a male deficit makes it easier to pursue their preferences, a relative surplus of younger women can be absorbed rather easily: Even if every second man would disappear due to war, a relative balance could still be maintained if x% of all men of 20 to 29 combine with x% of women of 20 to 24, y% of the (remaining) men of 30 to 39 combine with y% of women of 25 to 29, and so on;

  It can be assumed that a surplus or deficit in men or woman also affects the difference in age at marriage.
  A statistical analysis should there look if the causing events “loss of young men in war” or “loss of female births due to prenatal sex selection” leads to a shift in the age difference between (first-time) grooms and brides. The evolution of dowries (payments by the bride’s parents) and of bride prices (payments to the bride’s parents) as a result of prenatal sex selection or other changes would also warrant attention.

  A more elaborate investigation would also look at effects of male or female surplus in different social strata of society. Under conventional attitudes, it could be expected that in a male surplus situation, men marry “downwards” the social ladder and poorer men remain involuntary bachelors, while upward mobility through marriage becomes easier for women. In systems that allow some identification of the social status of persons by aspects like the Caste system in India and the Hukou system in China, these effects possibly can be identified more easily. Men belonging to one of the higher strata can be expected to fare better under male surplus conditions.

  If parents are made to learn earlier that the prospects of male and female descendants are changing, that should reduce their tendencies for prenatal sex selection.

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  Conflict of Interest:
  None declared.

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