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Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: a geospatial and statistical analysis in Aden governorate, Yemen
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  • Published on: 6 May 2021
    Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: a geospatial and statistical analysis in Aden governorate, Yemen - A Response

    Dear Editor,
    I thank Ms Besson and colleagues for their useful research into excess mortality in Yemen. They have highlighted effective use of excess mortality as a measure of the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact. Their new technique for determining excess mortality potentially overcomes a major limitation in its normal calculation, that is, the predominance of low quality civil registration systems in many LMICs (1). I would like to offer some comments on this research.
    A key element in any determination of excess mortality is the comparative baseline period adopted (2,3). The authors have selected a baseline period beginning in July 2016, but given that the Yemeni conflict began far prior to this, I wonder why this arbitrary start-point was selected (4, 5). Whilst the authors have also referred to armed conflict intensity data, I do not see its application in the final results. Such intensity data could have been useful in selection of the comparative baseline period, in order to provide a more accurate analysis of excess mortality related to COVID-19. As conflict related mortality in Yemen, as well as mortality related to food insecurity, has varied significantly over the last number of years, it is particularly challenging to compare like with like (4, 5). These changing trends in mortality must be accounted for in order to produce a truly accurate calculation of excess mortality. Further to this, whilst 1st April was understandably selected as the date at whic...

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    Conflict of Interest:
    None declared.