Article Text
Abstract
Cause-specific mortality estimates for 11 countries located in the WHO’s South East Asia Region (WHO SEAR) are generated periodically by the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) and the WHO Global Health Estimates (GHE) analyses. A comparison of GBD and GHE estimates for 2019 for 11 specific causes of epidemiological importance to South East Asia was undertaken. An index of relative difference (RD) between the estimated numbers of deaths by sex for each cause from the two sources for each country was calculated, and categorised as marginal (RD=±0%–9%), moderate (RD=±10%–19%), high (RD=±20%–39%) and extreme (RD>±40%). The comparison identified that the RD was >10% in two-thirds of all instances. The RD was ‘high’ or ‘extreme’ for deaths from tuberculosis, diarrhoea, road injuries and suicide for most SEAR countries, and for deaths from most of the 11 causes in Bangladesh, DPR Korea, Myanmar, Nepal and Sri Lanka. For all WHO SEAR countries, mortality estimates from both sources are based on statistical models developed from an international historical cause-specific mortality data series that included very limited empirical data from the region. Also, there is no scientific rationale available to justify the reliability of one set of estimates over the other. The characteristics of national mortality statistics systems for each WHO SEAR country were analysed, to understand the reasons for weaknesses in empirical data. The systems analysis identified specific limitations in structure, organisation and implementation that affect data completeness, validity of causes of death and vital statistics production, which vary across countries. Therefore, customised national strategies are required to strengthen mortality statistics systems to meet immediate and long-term data needs for health policy and research, and reduce dependence on current unreliable modelled estimates.
- public health
- health policy
- epidemiology
Data availability statement
Data are available in a public, open access repository.
This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.
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Data availability statement
Data are available in a public, open access repository.
Supplementary materials
Supplementary Data
This web only file has been produced by the BMJ Publishing Group from an electronic file supplied by the author(s) and has not been edited for content.
Supplementary Data
This web only file has been produced by the BMJ Publishing Group from an electronic file supplied by the author(s) and has not been edited for content.
Footnotes
Handling editor Seye Abimbola
Twitter @ChalapatiRao13
Contributors CR conceptualised the research, led the analysis and drafted the initial version. KB and MK contributed to the data compilation and analysis. VT critically reviewed the initial draft and made relevant modifications. All authors reviewed and contributed to the final version of the manuscript.
Funding The authors have not declared a specific grant for this research from any funding agency in the public, commercial or not-for-profit sectors.
Competing interests None declared.
Provenance and peer review Not commissioned; externally peer reviewed.
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