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Original research
High excess mortality in areas with young and socially vulnerable populations during the COVID-19 outbreak in Stockholm Region, Sweden
  1. Amaia Calderón-Larrañaga1,
  2. Davide L Vetrano1,2,3,
  3. Debora Rizzuto1,4,
  4. Tom Bellander5,
  5. Laura Fratiglioni1,4,
  6. Serhiy Dekhtyar1
  1. 1Aging Research Center, Department of Neurobiology Care Sciences and Society, Karolinska Institutet - Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
  2. 2Department of Geriatrics, Catholic University of Rome, Rome, Italy
  3. 3Centro di Medicina dell'Invecchiamento, Fondazione Policlinico A. Gemelli, Rome, Italy
  4. 4Stockholm Gerontology Research Center, Stockholm, Sweden
  5. 5Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
  1. Correspondence to Dr Amaia Calderón-Larrañaga; amaia.calderon.larranaga{at}ki.se

Abstract

Introduction We aimed to describe the distribution of excess mortality (EM) during the first weeks of the COVID-19 outbreak in the Stockholm Region, Sweden, according to age, sex and sociodemographic context.

Methods Weekly all-cause mortality data were obtained from Statistics Sweden for the period 1 January 2015 to 17 May 2020. EM during the first 20 weeks of 2020 was estimated by comparing observed mortality rates with expected mortality rates during the five previous years (N=2 379 792). EM variation by socioeconomic status (tertiles of income, education, Swedish-born, gainful employment) and age distribution (share of 70+-year-old persons) was explored based on Demographic Statistics Area (DeSO) data.

Results EM was first detected during the week of 23–29 March 2020. During the peak week of the epidemic (6–12 April 2020), an EM of 150% was observed (152% in 80+-year-old women; 183% in 80+-year-old men). During the same week, the highest EM was observed for DeSOs with lowest income (171%), lowest education (162%), lowest share of Swedish-born (178%) and lowest share of gainfully employed residents (174%). EM was further increased in areas with higher versus lower proportion of younger people (magnitude of increase: 1.2–1.7 times depending on socioeconomic measure).

Conclusion Living in areas characterised by lower socioeconomic status and younger populations was linked to excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Stockholm Region. These conditions might have facilitated viral spread. Our findings highlight the well-documented vulnerability linked to increasing age and sociodemographic context for COVID-19–related death.

  • epidemiology
  • public health
  • Descriptive study
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/

This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.

https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2020-003595

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    Footnotes

    • AC-L and DLV are joint first authors.

    • Handling editor Seye Abimbola

    • Twitter @AmaiaCalderon

    • Contributors AC-L, DLV, TB and SD developed the study concept and design. AC-L, DLV and DR performed the data analysis. AC-L, DLV and SD drafted the manuscript. AC-L, DLV, DR, TB, LF and SD interpreted the data. All authors provided critical revisions and approved the final version of the manuscript for submission.

    • Funding The authors have not declared a specific grant for this research from any funding agency in the public, commercial or not-for-profit sectors.

    • Competing interests None declared.

    • Patient consent for publication Not required.

    • Provenance and peer review Not commissioned; externally peer reviewed.

    • Data availability statement Data are available on request. Data for this study were provided by Statistics Sweden (SCB, https://www.scb.se/en/).

    • Supplemental material This content has been supplied by the author(s). It has not been vetted by BMJ Publishing Group Limited (BMJ) and may not have been peer-reviewed. Any opinions or recommendations discussed are solely those of the author(s) and are not endorsed by BMJ. BMJ disclaims all liability and responsibility arising from any reliance placed on the content. Where the content includes any translated material, BMJ does not warrant the accuracy and reliability of the translations (including but not limited to local regulations, clinical guidelines, terminology, drug names and drug dosages), and is not responsible for any error and/or omissions arising from translation and adaptation or otherwise.