Application of the framework to the development of a revised EHP in Malawi
This analysis is intended to provide an analytic framework which can be used to support rather than prescribe decisions. The framework and data supporting the initial analysis were shared with the Ministry of Health in Malawi, which mandated an already existing EHP Technical Working Group (TWG) to conduct the EHP revision process (including the Ministry of Health Heads of Departments and Programme Managers, technical partners such as the local WHO office, donors, academic institutions and other key national health stakeholders). The TWG added other criteria to health maximisation including: equity (whether an intervention targeted at risk or marginalised groups); continuum of care (where interventions are linked, eg, screening and treating); complementarities (whether interventions are part of package) and exceptional donor funded interventions (donor funding for interventions that were expected to remain largely stable in the medium term). The framework was used to quantify the health gains that would result from different choices of interventions that met the agreed criteria to varying degrees, enabling explicit consideration of the necessary trade-offs between maximising health and other objectives. The EHP TWG presented their draft package to District Health Officers and then the Ministry of Health management for approval. The whole process was facilitated by Ministry of Health economists.
The final agreed package costed $247 million per year and was predicted to avert 41.5 million DALYs if fully implemented. Like both previous packages, the cost of this package is more than the resources budgeted for it. However, it costs 31% less than the 2011 package ($362 million) and averts 92% as many DALYs. As such, it offers better value for money overall than its predecessor, implying significant progress towards a package that is more realistic and less aspirational.17 This also highlights that there are valuable health gains from expanding the budget for the package to its full cost. An example of the deliberative process undertaken by the Ministry of Health, alongside the analysis, was the decision not to include male circumcision in the final EHP despite the analysis showing it to be a ‘best buy’ intervention. It was judged that the type of demand-side constraints which would need to be overcome to increase the implementation levels would be too great and render the intervention not cost-effective.
The conditionalities of donors were considered in the process, particularly with respect to funding from the Global Fund and GAVI towards HIV and immunisation, respectively. After deliberation, the decision taken was to include many of the interventions funded by these organisations in the package, regardless of their cost-effectiveness, reflecting a lack of flexibility in health financing in Malawi and in the role of donors. The framework, however, provided a means to initiate conversation about the impact of a high proportion of earmarked funding within the health sector and the subsequent effect on population health.
The framework was augmented through further data collection on the additional criteria deemed important in package design within Malawi. Data in these fields were largely populated through expert elicitation. A benefit of the framework is its adaptable use in the policy-making environment. Additional data can be combined with the framework to the extent desired and possible. Within Malawi, quantitative data on other criteria considered for inclusion in the decision-making process (eg, financial risk protection) proved scarce, leading to the decision to focus primarily on health maximisation with other criteria for which data were elicitable from expert judgement considered within the deliberative process.
There were a number of limitations and challenges in using the analytic framework to revise the Malawi EHP. Initially there was limited understanding of opportunity cost, cost-effectiveness and budget constraint principles by some stakeholders. While the EHP TWG agreed on inclusion criteria, adhering to the implications of these choices was difficult in practice. In part, this was due to low total health expenditure per capita, $39, which suggested a much more restricted package than previous unaffordable packages. The historical vertical funding arrangements also meant that there was limited willingness by Heads of Departments and Programme Managers to consider disinvestment in their own interventions.
By applying the framework to data from Malawi, this study illustrates how metrics of value that reflect health opportunity costs can provide a principled and evidence-based support to decision-making processes. Specifically, they can quantify the health opportunity costs of constraints that inhibit delivering interventions fully; donor constraints on how funding is spent and the inclusion of objectives additional to improving population health.
Such analysis forms a critical part of package design. However, it also emphasises the important role of the decision-making process and how it interacts with analysis. As evidenced in the framework’s application in Malawi, that process needs to, for example, define the objectives of the package, deliberate on the relevance of the evidence provided by analysis and to make final decisions around what should (or should not) be included in the package.27 To ensure that it can be implemented, the package should also inform other health systems inputs and standards, such as treatment guidelines, essential medicines lists and payment or reimbursement mechanisms, which currently are not typically informed by such economic criteria. This can also inform broader questions such as the benefits of moving to a whole system approach to funding. For example, where funding is vertical and tied to one specific disease as is commonly the case, the health opportunity cost of this type of planning as opposed to a whole-system approach can be identified. The analysis also provides quantification of the health benefit of expanding the health sector budget and, therefore, clarifies trade-offs with other claims on public finance.
Inevitably the evidence available to conduct this analysis was limited in a number of respects. The interventions included in the analysis in this paper are those for which data were readily available on costs, health effects, the size of the patient population and actual levels of implementation. There were a number of interventions where some but not all of these data were available or were reported in ways that were not useful. There are also likely to be complementarities and interactions between interventions for which there is little evidence and have not been addressed, although the analysis can be extended to consider the cost and effects of different combinations of interventions. The analysis suggests that there are potentially substantial gains from investing in policies which reduce or remove constraints to implementation at the intervention level and across the HCS as a whole. However, additional evidence is needed about the cost and effects of specific policies and projects that could improve the implementation of high priority interventions.