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Research
Global investment targets for malaria control and elimination between 2016 and 2030
  1. Edith Patouillard1,2,3,
  2. Jamie Griffin4,
  3. Samir Bhatt5,
  4. Azra Ghani5,
  5. Richard Cibulskis1
  1. 1Global Malaria Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
  2. 2Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland
  3. 3Universität Basel, Basel, Switzerland
  4. 4School of Mathematical Sciences, Queen Mary University of London, Mile End Road, London, UK
  5. 5Medical Research Council Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK
  1. Correspondence to Dr Edith Patouillard; patouillarde{at}who.int

Abstract

Background Access to malaria control interventions falls short of universal health coverage. The Global Technical Strategy for malaria targets at least 90% reduction in case incidence and mortality rates, and elimination in 35 countries by 2030. The potential to reach these targets will be determined in part by investments in malaria. This study estimates the financing required for malaria control and elimination over the 2016–2030 period.

Methods A mathematical transmission model was used to explore the impact of increasing intervention coverage on burden and costs. The cost analysis took a public provider perspective covering all 97 malaria endemic countries and territories in 2015. All control interventions currently recommended by the WHO were considered. Cost data were sourced from procurement databases, the peer-reviewed literature, national malaria strategic plans, the WHO-CHOICE project and key informant interviews.

Results Annual investments of $6.4 billion (95% uncertainty interval (UI $4.5–$9.0 billion)) by 2020, $7.7 billion (95% UI $5.4–$10.9 billion) by 2025 and $8.7 billion (95% UI $6.0–$12.3 billion) by 2030 will be required to reach the targets set in the Global Technical Strategy. These are equivalent to annual investment per person at risk of malaria of US$3.90 by 2020, US$4.30 by 2025 and US$4.40 by 2030, compared with US$2.30 if interventions were sustained at current coverage levels. The 20 countries with the highest burden in 2015 will require 88% of the total investment.

Conclusions Given the challenges in increasing domestic and international funding, the efficient use of currently available resources should be a priority.

This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt and build upon this work, for commercial use, provided the original work is properly cited. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2016-000176

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    Footnotes

    • Handling editor Seye Abimbola.

    • Contributors The study was designed by EP and RC with input from JG, AG and SB. EP and JG undertook the analysis. SB provided input data on the bed net distribution model. EP, AG and RC drafted the manuscript. All authors provided input on the manuscript.

    • Funding EP and RC acknowledge support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. EP also acknowledges support from the Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, through a grant from the Swiss Development Cooperation. RC acknowledges support from the UK Department for International Development (DFID) and the US Agency for International Development (USAID). JG is an MRC Methodology Fellow (#G1002284) funded by the UK Medical Research Council (MRC) and the UK Department for International Development (DFID) under the MRC/DFID Concordat agreement. AG acknowledges research grant support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (#OPP1068440), and Centre support from the UK MRC and the UK DFID under the MRC/DFID Concordat agreement. SB acknowledges research grant support from the MRC and DFID under the MRC/DFID Concordat agreement and receives support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (#OPP1068048, #OPP1106023). Members of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, UK Department for International Development and US Agency for International Development provided input into the development of the scenarios through their formal roles on the Global Technical Strategy scientific committees.

    • Competing interests None declared.

    • Provenance and peer review Not commissioned; externally peer reviewed.

    • Data sharing statement No additional data are available.