Inputs used in the simulation model estimating cases of poverty and catastrophic health costs due to measles, severe rotavirus and severe pneumococcal disease, in 41 low-income and middle-income countries
| Average (min–max) across countries | Reference | |
| (a) Total number of cases (2016–2030) in 1000s | ||
| Scenario 1: no vaccination | ||
| Measles | 16 709 (378–107 443) | 21 25 26 |
| Severe pneumococcal disease | 675 (6–4648) | 21 23 25 |
| Severe rotavirus | 1555 (28–10 573) | 21 23 25 |
| Scenario 2: current coverage trends | ||
| Measles | 2196 (8–34 182) | 21 25 26 |
| Severe pneumococcal disease | 658 (5–4256) | 21 23 25 |
| Severe rotavirus | 1485 (13–10 573) | 21 23 25 |
| Scenario 3: best case | ||
| Measles | 1279 (6–14 530) | 21 25 26 |
| Severe pneumococcal disease | 467 (4–3383) | 21 23 25 |
| Severe rotavirus | 948 (4–7890) | 21 23 25 |
| (b) Provider treatment costs | ||
| Inpatient costs | ||
| Measles | $12.0 (1.4–53.5) | 2 30 38–41 |
| Severe pneumococcal disease | $51.2 (6.2–241.3) | 2 28–34 37 39–41 |
| Severe rotavirus | $38.0 (4.4–171.0) | 2 30 35 36 39–41 |
| Outpatient hospital costs | ||
| Measles | $2.8 (0.6–9.1) | 2 30 38–41 |
| Severe pneumococcal disease | $2.7 (0.6–9.1) | 2 28–34 37 39–41 |
| Severe rotavirus | $2.7 (0.6–9.1) | 2 30 35 36 39–41 |
| Outpatient health centre costs | ||
| Measles | $1.4 (0.3–4.5) | 2 30 38–41 |
| Severe pneumococcal disease | $1.3 (0.3–4.5) | 2 28–34 37 39–41 |
| Severe rotavirus | $1.3 (0.3–4.5) | 2 30 35 36 39–41 |
| Transport costs | ||
| Measles | $2.0 (0.2–9.4) | 34 |
| Severe pneumococcal disease | $2.0 (0.2–9.4) | 34 |
| Severe rotavirus | $2.1 (0.2–9.4) | 34 |
| (c) Health gradients | ||
| Disease case distribution | ||
| 1st quintile (poorest) | 22% (6–31) | 27 |
| 2nd quintile | 22% (13–25) | 27 |
| 3rd quintile | 20% (15–24) | 27 |
| 4th quintile | 20% (14–30) | 27 |
| 5th quintile (highest) | 16% (11–28) | 27 |
| Healthcare access likelihood | ||
| 1st quintile (poorest) | 43% (11–76) | 41 |
| 2nd quintile | 45% (24–76) | 41 |
| 3rd quintile | 49% (25–78) | 41 |
| 4th quintile | 50% (25–75) | 41 |
| 5th quintile (highest) | 56% (33–78) | 41 |
Note. Table presents the average value as well as a minimum and maximum in parentheses for the set of countries studied. Current coverage trends represent current vaccination forecasts. Best case includes additional Gavi funding for the expansion or implementation of vaccines.