Abstract

Pneumococcal pneumonia causes an estimated 105 000 child deaths in India annually. The planned introduction of the serotype-based pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) is expected to avert child deaths, but the high cost of PCV relative to current vaccines provided under the Universal Immunization Programme has been a concern. Cost-effectiveness studies from high-income countries are not readily comparable because of differences in the distribution of prevalent serotypes, population and health systems. We extended IndiaSim, our agent-based simulation model representative of the Indian population and health system, to model the dynamics of Streptococcus pneumoniae. This enabled us to evaluate serotype and overall disease dynamics in the context of the local population and health system, an aspect that is missing in prospective evaluations of the vaccine. We estimate that PCV13 introduction would cost approximately US$240 million and avert US$48.7 million in out-of-pocket expenditures and 34 800 (95% CI 29 600 to 40 800) deaths annually assuming coverage levels and distribution similar to DPT (diphtheria, pertussis and tetanus) vaccination (~77%). Introducing the vaccine protects the population, especially the poorest wealth quintile, from potentially catastrophic expenditure. The net-present value of predicted money-metric value of insurance for 20 years of vaccination is US$160 000 (95% CI US$151 000 to US$168 000) per 100 000 under-fives, and almost half of this protection is for the bottom wealth quintile (US$78 000; 95% CI 70 800 to 84 400). Extending vaccination to 90% coverage averts additional lives and provides additional financial risk protection. Our estimates are sensitive to immunity parameters in our model; however, our assumptions are conservative, and if willingness to pay per years of life lost averted is US$228 or greater, then introducing the vaccine is more cost-effective than our baseline (no vaccination) in more than 95% of simulations.